Texas has started taking public donations to defray some of the $7 million it has spent on buses since April. Since that election, the media have . Three dozen of those days were devoted to appearances in Chicago, while 22 were downstate with three in the collar counties and five in suburban Cook. It goes hand in hand with the kinds of political polarization and partisanship that were seeing, said journalist Lou Jacobson, senior correspondent for PolitiFact, the nonpartisan fact-checking organization. Simultaneously, the regional differences were moderated by waves of national investment, including the New Deal spending on rural electrification, the Tennessee Valley Authority, agricultural price supports, and Social Security during the 1930s, and the Great Society programs that provided federal aid for K12 schools and higher education, as well as Medicare and Medicaid. Forbes magazine says the shift in population has been as much political as it has been economic. Drazan has thus far focused her campaign on issues such as public safety. The governor is proud of the investments his administration has made in rural and downstate communities and will continue to work tirelessly to serve all of Illinois.. Send questions and comments about this story to feedback@stlpublicradio.org. On the ground, John Spencer sees everything exactly as Poshard lays out. Thats the political home turf of state Sen. Darren Bailey, one of four declared GOP candidates aiming to unseat Pritzker next year. The states rapid diversification and leftward lurch in politics are emblematic of broader trends across the nation, which could end up looking like Texas sooner rather than later. In a private newsletter that he writes for a small group of activists, Podhorzer recently laid out a detailed case for thinking of the two blocs as fundamentally different nations uneasily sharing the same geographic space. The country is bifurcating, Bolling says in the film. Tonight Texans sent a message that they want to keep the Lone Star State the beacon of opportunity that we provided over the past eight years, Abbott wrote on Twitter on Tuesday evening. Pritzkers count greatly exceeded the four counties Democrat Pat Quinn won in his 2010 election and the lone county that lined up with him in his unsuccessful 2014 reelection. That progress, though, stopped after 1980, and the gap remained roughly unchanged for the next three decades. Biden's victory, and the matter in which he won, left many political pundits. Dave McKinney covers Illinois politics and government for WBEZ. No presidential candidate has won it by more than five percentage points this century. The gross domestic product per person and the median household income are now both more than 25 percent greater in the blue section than in the red, according to Podhorzers calculations. Bailey is quick to invoke a biblical passage, Proverbs 28:2, to explain himself, his candidacy and where Illinois is at right now: When there is moral rot, a nations government topples easily, but wise and knowledgeable leaders bring stability.. Republicans are on a long winning streak in Florida, even if their victories have been by small . Pat Quinn lost reelection. All of the blue states have set a minimum wage higher than the federal level of $7.25, while only about one-third of the red-state residents live in places that have done so. In November 2020, when he ran for the Illinois Senate, he built on that margin, winning 77% of the vote. Voters seem to be fine with the status quo, said Drew Landry, assistant professor of government at South Plains College in Levelland, west of Lubbock. I couldnt buy a job now if I wanted one in the line of construction, because nobody wants a Democrat on their property.. By contrast, in the last years before the Civil War, the Souths political orientation was offensive: Through the courts (the 1857 Dred Scott decision) and in Congress (the Kansas-Nebraska Act in 1854), its principal aim was to authorize the expansion of slavery into more territories and states. He also lumped Rauner into that category for abandoning an anti-abortion campaign pledge. It doesnt matter if Im in Clay County, in Louisville, Ill. These maps offer a chance to look beneath the. In 2020, Democrats improved their margin by 3.3percentage points from 2016. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. Before Democratic Gov. Since then, its been a solidly red county. released on Monday by the National Association of Realtors. Independent candidate Betsy Johnson managed to curry favor with 19% of pollsters by comparison. Tesla CEO Elon Musk made waves in 2021 when he announced that he was relocating the electric car giants headquarters from the tech hub of Silicon Valley in California to Austin, Texas. This book examines how socio-cultural, demographic . That includes five open seats, including Republican retirements in the key battlegrounds of Pennsylvania and North Carolina and the. A closer look at election data in the state shows recent presidential and Senate wins might be breakthroughs to a new. We are more like a federated republic of two nations: Blue Nation and Red Nation. Many red states have experienced robust job growth (though thats been heavily concentrated in their blue-leaning metro areas). . That doesn't mean that a Republican can't . If a red wave arrives in November, as many expect, it will likely wash ashore in landlocked Nevada, a state whose recent history of Democratic victories masks just how hard-fought those. Currently, it looks to be a race between the governor from Chicago and one of possibly four or more GOP contenders, three of whom hail from deep-red downstate. The Trump model, in other words, is more the South in 1850 than the South in 1950, more John Calhoun than Richard Russell. But it does mean that the 2020s may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability since those dark and tumultuous years. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. The survey design included a national sample of 1,000 registered voters and state oversamples of approximately equal sizes of registered voters in California, New York, Texas, and Florida, as well as in Pennsylvania (the subject of a separate report). Through gerrymandering, theyreducedthe number of majority-Black and Latino congressional districts andsplit upAsian communities significantly diluting political power for the Texans of color who have driven population growth. Holding incumbents accountable is complicated, though, in a system where policy authority is divided across multiple layers and branches of government, and partisanship seems to be more important than actually evaluating a governors performance. The four governors are on track to win reelection even though a large share of their constituents are dissatisfied with recent economic and social trends. I definitely feel for the people in the red areas of Illinois because you know if the Chicago area has enough people to determine the course of the state, [red areas] are basically never going to win, Jacobson said. ), From the July/August 2021 issue: How America fractured into four parts. And yet, in the states more recent political past, Democrats are the ones with the upper hand as blue Illinois gets bluer, and red Illinois gets redder and angrier that they dont have a voice statewide. Last year, the American Enterprise Institute released a And, he said, his party affiliation has been hard on his wallet. Greg Abbott and dashing Democratic hopes that the state would turn purple. Texas40 electoral votes are on the table. Aug. 3, 2021, at 4:50 p.m. States to Watch in the 2022 Midterms. "Texas is ready to turn blue." Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean 2010 "Texas Dems are presenting the biggest challenge the state's GOP has faced in decades. When we think about the United States, we make the essential error of imagining it as a single nation, a marbled mix of Red and Blue people, Podhorzer writes. We are rapidly becoming two very different nations with two very different cultures. Our initial question was framed as interest in leaving, without necessarily having it be a real option. He identified Illinois as among 14 states with the strongest county-by-county Democratic declines during the five presidential cycles after 2000. The drop-off was even more pronounced if Barack Obamas 2008 presidential win is a marker. Thats all to say downstate votes werent decisive in Pritzkers 2018 win. The biggest news is that the exodus from progressive-led states hasn't slowed . In this match-up, DeSantis barely edges out Newsom, 51-49%. Florida saw the biggest influx of new residents, some 319,000 people, a total population increase of nearly 2%, according to an Among Democrats, California appears to be a bit more attractive than New York, and there is some interest in the red states as well. Among likely voters: in California, 91% of Democrats are for Newsom; in New York, 89% of Democrats are for Hochul; in Texas, 95% of Republicans are for Abbott; and, in Florida, 97% of Republicans are for DeSantis. CINCINNATI President-elect Joe Biden is the first person to win the presidency without carrying Ohio since 1960. He said the resolution, which sought to put up clear boundaries between red and blue Illinois, attracted the attention of separation groups. But it went nowhere and now, as a candidate for statewide office, Bailey said he no longer embraces the concept and that Illinois is better off together.. And that leaves the country perpetually teetering on a knifes edge: The combined vote margin for either party across those purple states has been no greater than two percentage points in any of the past three presidential elections, he calculates. Republicans continued their 28-year dominance of statewide races but fell short of their hopes for a South Texas congressional sweep. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden laid claim to just 14 Illinois counties. Voters returned GOP incumbents to their jobs at the top of the ticket and handed the states dominant party its 14th consecutive sweep of statewide offices. OREGON POLL: @ChristineDrazan 36%@TinaKotek 34%@senbetsyjohnson 19%9% undecidedhttps://t.co/Q4dZtymPg7 pic.twitter.com/NB2cIsLUfm, Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 4, 2022. According to Gallup tracking, there were 15 stable blue states in 2017. One might think incumbents in these states should fear voter retribution at a time when many Americans are struggling. by J. Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D. & Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. We then provided a free response box. Rev. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER, Chicago will continue to be important to the future of Citadel, as many of our colleagues have deep ties to Illinois, Griffin wrote in a letter to staff. Its our 10th year participating in Amplify, and to celebrate, weve got $15,000 in matching funds from four generous Tribune supporters. Since about 2008, Podhorzer calculates, the southern states at the heart of the red nation have again fallen further behind the blue nation in per capita income. It's official: Florida is a red state The former swing state is now a lost cause for Democrats. I was campaigning on jobs, education, broadband internet, infrastructure, all kinds of things that would help this area. If Newsom or DeSantis make bids, it is clear they would use their respective states as models for what the nation as a whole should become. Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox. The rest were either undecided or preferred someone other than the top three candidates. Gov. Democrats blamed Republican-appointed regulators for failing to prepare the grid for disasters. It seeks to conquer as much territory as possible by any means possible.. Predicting three states flipping blue to red, four or more Senate seats blue to red and at least 60 house seats blue to red. This survey differs from others by including in the field Governor Hochul of New York and Governor Abbott of Texasas well as Californias Governor Newsom, whom most early polls have excluded. As a follow-up, we asked Democrats to choose head-to-head between Harris and Newsom. Hispanic residents now represent the largest ethnic group in Texas, surpassing non-Hispanic white residents earlier this year in a census estimate. In addition to the battle over keeping schools open and the wearing of masks, Blue to Red takes a look at the economic policies that forced millions of people and businesses to move to states with less regulation and more freedom. The Democratic states, comprising 242 electoral votes had all actually gone blue since 1992 - six straight elections. After years of projections that congressional reapportionment in 2020 would see red states lose political power to blue states that have been inundated with illegal and legal immigration over the . Raphael Warnock, then-candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, and Stacey Abrams, former candidate for Georgia governor . As the progressive wing of the party ascends nationally, everyday Texans are moving in lockstep. Just32%of Texans want to make abortion laws stricter, yet Republicans bannedup to 90%of abortions,primarily affectingwomen of color. 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